Singularity: Humanity's Boss Battle
I’m super excited about the future of humanity. In the last few years we’ve really seen a major acceleration in some of the most important technologies for mankind - think space travel, AI, biotech (thx Elon! 🙇🏻♂️). This is accelerating the pace at which we are approximating the next major leap in human evolution - The Singularity (what I like to call “Humanity’s Boss Battle”).
What's "The Singularity"?
The Singularity represents a pivotal era in human history, a concept where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, profoundly transforming human civilization. This term, popularized by futurists like Ray Kurzweil, encapsulates a future period where the pace of technological progress, particularly in artificial intelligence, accelerates at an exponential pace. Kurzweil forecasts that by 2029, AI will reach human-level intelligence, and by 2045, we may experience the Singularity, marking a time characterized by the convergence of various technologies that amplify human potential (see his latest chat with Lex Fridman). So far, his timeline (published in 1999) has been pretty much spot on - so it doesn’t seem to be just some random old dude coming up with predictions 😲.
This will not be “just another technological shift”, but will be one that redefines the very human species. It will be quite turbulent for society (i.e. fierce ideology clashes), and the outcome is far from certain. My current view is that the only way we avoid pessimistic scenarios (e.g. we become the next “monkeys”, or worse, “Terminator”-like outcomes where we just get wiped out) is by evolving the human itself by truly merging with technology.
What's making this possible?
TL;DR - unprecedented convergence of multiple technologies that are simultaneously reaching the point of exponential growth (highly recommend Ark Invest Big Ideas Report if curious).
Trend 1: AI 🤖
We are probably just seeing the beginnings of the AI revolution (especially in the LLM space) with the advent of powerful, multi-modal models like OpenAI's GPT - a major platform shift with a scale unlike anything we’ve seen. Already - entire domains are being reinvented, ranging from code generation (e.g. GitHub Copilot) to graphic design (e.g. Midjourney - which was actually used to generate the cover image for this post 🤯) - across pretty much every industry. Essentially, these will enable a single human to do much, much more.
To give you a better sense of how fast things are moving, here are a few examples (far from exhaustive - new stuff coming out literally every week):
Midjourney's progress (in a span of 2 years!)
AI + Healthcare
Google casually dropped a research paper (AMIE Report) suggesting that diagnosis from a human doctor is more likely to kill than using just strictly AI... 😓
Well-summarized by Geoffrey Hinton (one of the pioneers of AI):
Needless to say, AI investment is skyrocketing:
Amazon has a strategic collaboration with Anthropic, committing up to $4B.
Microsoft has invested $12B into OpenAI and Inflection AI.
Meta committed to invest $9-15B (350k Nvidia H100 GPUs 🤯) into training their open-source model, Llama 3 🦙
Sam Altman is raising $7T (yes, “T”, so ~7% of the WORLD’s GDP) to build more & better AI chips
So far, there are 0 signs of any of this slowing down in the near future (not just $$$, but also the sheer momentum from the developer & research communities). We're continuing to see AI developments slide steeply down the cost curve while also advancing massively in terms of capability, unlocking a tsunami of new use cases. 🌊
Trend 2: Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) 🧠
The interface between humans & technology has been closing in for years now (phones → watches → VR). The “final frontier” will be Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs), where we will be able to tap into technology instantly & effortlessly. This will not only expand our capabilities, but also accelerate our understanding of the brain, the least understood part of the human body by far. Very big backers behind the key players in this field, and we’re starting to see real-world deployment tackle huge problems like paralysis.
Neuralink (Elon’s BCI startup) has developed a device that reads signals from a paralyzed patient's brain and transmits that data to an iPhone or computer, enabling the patient to control it with just their thoughts. It’s currently running human trials on paralyzed patients to help them regain movement.
Synchron (backed by Bezos and Gates) completed the first-in-human implant of its own BCI device (Stentrode) in 2022.
Here’s a brief tweet giving the TL;DR on Neuralink’s tech:
Trend 3: Biotech 🧬
So we’ve revamped artificial intelligence and plugged it to our brains - we done here, right? Not quite! We still have a MASSIVE challenge to solve - stopping & reversing aging. This is probably the area that needs the most development (and the area I currently least understand - but not for long 🤓).
A - Drugs & Cell Therapies
IMO these will be key in the near-term solutions we need to slow aging and buy us time as we figure out systematic solutions. Here are 2 examples of recent developments in this category:
Oviva & Gameto - Menopause 🙍🏻♀️
Innovators like Oviva and Gameto are at the forefront of tackling ovarian aging, developing therapies such as rAMH to extend fertility and potentially delay menopause, reshaping the approach to women's health and aging. These strides aim not just to prolong childbearing years but also to enhance overall health, vitality, and longevity. This is a damn worthwhile problem to be solving 👏🏻👏🏻
Loyal - Dog Longevity 🐶
Loyal is a startup developing drugs like LOY-001 and LOY-003 to extend the lifespans of large dogs by targeting growth hormones that contribute to their shorter lifespans, and to improve overall health in older dogs of various breeds by addressing common age-related conditions. Their work, which has garnered FDA attention, leverages the science of aging to treat longevity in dogs as a manageable condition. Though it doesn’t directly tackle humans, it certainly will help advance our understanding of the aging process quicker (and ofc enjoy longer relationships with our pets!)
B - Genomics
In order to come up with systematic solutions to the aging problem, we must truly understand the human body, and have the means to modify the faulty/problematic parts. Our understanding thus far (assuming we’re not in a simulation, or have “souls”) suggests that we are all amalgamations of code (i.e. DNA). Thus, a part of the longer-term solution probably will involve us modifying parts of our “code”, just like we fix a bug in an app.
Arc Institute - breakthroughs, breakthroughs, breakthroughs!
Arc Institute recently had a major breakthrough: discovering the bridge RNA recombinase mechanism. This novel RNA-guided system extends beyond traditional RNA and CRISPR technologies, enabling programmable recombination and precise DNA rearrangements, including insertion, excision, and inversion.
What makes this even more remarkable is that it’s only been 2 years since their founding (Dec 2021), and they’re already producing breakthroughs. The institute is funded by prominent & respected figures in tech (e.g. Collision brothers, Vitalik Buterin, Elad Gli), and is an entity that can (finally) challenge traditional medicine research (a monopoly run by the government - highly inefficient). Let’s goooooo 🚀
Orchid - Genomic Screening for Embryos
Orchid uses genomics to screen for genetic risks that could thwart the baby. Here’s a great primer on the tech from its founder, Noor Siddiqui 👩🏻🎓:
C - Nanotechnology
In tandem with genomics, we likely have to augment our biological systems with nanobots that boost our regenerative functions and keep it from deteriorating. Though it may sound “science fiction”-y, there are actual developments being made in this space today (e.g. there was a breakthrough recently from IBEC that developed urease-powered nanobots that reduced bladder tumor in mice by 90% from a single dose). It also is the key in truly solving the aging problem, as it enables us to engineer solutions quicker than biological evolution can.
Ethical and Societal Implications ⚠️
This shift will be far from smooth, where we will have to deal with all sorts of side effects (as with any technology) and answer some pretty deep questions.
Some of these are:
Rethinking Our Existence: This Singularity thing is going to make us ask some pretty deep questions. What does it mean to be human when we can outthink, outlive, and outperform our natural selves? It’s not just tech talk; it’s a whole new way to see our place in the universe.
Safety & Regulation: How do we prevent runaway technologies that spiral out of our control and threaten our existence?
Widening disparities: Just like any technology, initial access will be reserved for the privileged few, while the rest have to wait for costs to come down. Just like income inequality, but now in terms of our physical & intellectual capabilities.
Whether we’re prepared or not, this shift is already occurring. We need to really start figuring out the answers to these questions before it’s too late. Given the sheer complexity of each of these, I’ll aim to unpack them in future posts!
Won't happen on its own!
Though the trends are definitely in the right direction, there is still a LOT of work to be done. We will need a high concentration of resources focused at not only overcoming the technological challenges, but also to figure out how it is deployed (to avoid dystopian outcomes). All things considered, I believe we have a pretty good shot at being the first generation that can have the choice of living forever, check out other cool planets, and be a part of our species’ journey in discovering the “meaning of life”. Let’s not gaslight ourselves into complacency with the existing “cycle”!
Anyways, this is what I consider to be my life mission. Lots to learn, lots to build, and most importantly - lots of people to gather. With that, I’ll close this out with another Midjourney image (pregame on Mars, anyone? 🚀):
Helpful Resources (WIP)
Elon’s & Kurzweil’s AI Predictions (diamandis.com)
Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045 (futurism.com)
Predictions for the Next 25 Years (diamandis.com)
The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Why
GOING VERTICAL! Elon Musk AI SINGULARITY Roundtable (youtube.com)